Sunday 9/22/02 at the northern tip of Yucatan (50,000 people
evacuated), a strong Category 3, probably about to become Category
4. Path uncertain, with possibility of a turn to the North, toward
the Texas Gulf Coast. [satellite
image of Isidore on Sunday, skimming the Yucatan coast]
Friday 9/20/02 Passed over Cuba's western tip, with well over than
two feet of rain
William Gray's 2002 Forecast
(with a mid-season update due Aug 7)--(11, 6, 2) 2 major hurricanes: "Gray on Friday called for 11
storms to reach at least tropical storm status, with six of those
becoming hurricanes and two of those major hurricanes, with top
sustained winds of at least 111 mph. His December forecast had
called for 13, eight and four. The historical average is 9.6, 5.9
and 2.3"
Here is the actual
formal forecast by Wm Gray et al, as of 30 May 2002
note also:
Probabilities for at least one or more Major (Category 3-4-5)
hurricane landfall on each of the following coastal areas:
Entire U.S. coastline - 63% (average for last century is 52%)
U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 42% (average for
last century is 31%)
Gulf Coast from the Florida
Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 35% (average for last century is
30%)
Expected near-average major hurricane
landfall risk in the Caribbean
National
Hurricane Center Forecast 2002--(9-13, 6-8, 2-3)
"The prediction center estimates nine to 13 tropical storms
will incubate in the warm Atlantic Ocean waters this hurricane
season, which runs from June 1 until the end of November. Six to
eight of them will develop into hurricanes, and between two
and three of those storms will grow to be major hurricanes --
storms that pack wind speeds of greater than 111 mph."