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2003 Hurricane Season Archive
Click here for the archive of the 2002 Season

2008 Hurricane Season
June 1 thru Nov 30 is considered Hurricane Season
with peak activity August thru October
[here is our page for this season, with predictions and accumulated data as the season progresses]
[names for all regions]

 2008 Atlantic Names: Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gustav Hanna Ike Josephine Kyle Laura Marco Nana Omar Paloma Rene Sally Teddy Vicky Wilfred

2008 Eastern North Pacific Names: Alma Boris Cristina Douglas Elida Fausto Genevieve Hernan Iselle Julio Karina Lowell Marie Norbert Odile Polo Rachel Simon Trudy Vance Winnie Xavier Yolanda Zeke


2003 Hurricane Season-Atlantic Basin
June 1 thru Nov 30 (peak is Aug thru Oct)

Ana, Bill, Claudette, Danny, Erika, Fabian, Grace, Henri, Isabel, Juan, Kate, Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, Odette, Peter, Rose, Sam, Teresa, Victor, Wanda
(click any "link" storm to jump to more details)

 

  • Consensus Government Forecasts (NOAA, Natl Hurricane Center, and others): The 2003 outlook calls for 12-15 tropical storms, with 7-9 becoming hurricanes, and 3-4 becoming major hurricanes. [this graph shows all...]

  • William Gray et al forecasts (You may have to set your browser to ignore the web's font settings...)"The team will issue seasonal updates of the 2003 Atlantic basic hurricane activity forecast on April 4, May 30, Aug. 7 and Sep. 3. The August forecast will include separate monthly forecasts for August-only and September-only activity." 
    Forecast Parameter
    and Climatology from 1950-2000
    (in parentheses)
    6 Dec
    2002
    4 Apr
    2003
    30 May
    2003
    6 Aug
    2003
    3 Sept
    2003
    Named Storms (9.6) 12 12  14  14  
    Named Storm Days (49.1) 65 65  70  60  
    Hurricanes (5.9) 8 8  8  8  
    Hurricane Days (24.5) 35 35  35  25  
    Intense Hurricanes (2.3)
    (3-5 on Saffir-Simpson scale)
    3 3  3  3  
    Intense Hurricane Days (5.0) 8 8  8  5  
    Hurricane Destruction Potential (72.7) 100 100  100  80
     

    PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL IN EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:
    (revised 8 Aug 03)

    1) Entire U.S. coastline - 64% (average for last century is 52%)
    2) U.S. East Coast Including the Florida Peninsula - 43% (average for last century is 31%)
    3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 36% (average for last century is 30%)
    4) Expected above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean

 


Saffir-
Simpson
Scale

Depression
<35 mph
<30kt

Tropical Storm
(earns a name from the list)
39-73 mph
34-64 kt

Category 1:
74-95 mph
65-82 knots
4-5 ft surge
minimal damage

Category 2:
96-110 mph
83-96 knots
6-8 ft surge
moderate damage

Category 3:
111-130 mph
97-113 knots
9-12 ft surge
extensive damage

Category 4:
131-155 mph
114-135 knots
13-18 ft surge
extreme damage

Category 5:
over 155 mph
over 135 knots
>18 ft surge
catastrophic damage

Here is NOAA's page.

Wind Scales describes the Beaufort Scale and also the Saffir-Simpson Scale.
plus:
Small Craft Warning
21-38 mph
18-33 kt
Gale Warning
39-54 mph
34-47 kt
Storm Warning
55-73 mph
48-63 kt

 

 

Juan
[TD 14 9/8/03 -- 9/10/03 dissipated] 
 System   Time   Date   Lat   Long   Winds   Pressure   Dir/Speed 
 Fourteen 4PM EST 9/10/03  17.3N  25.5W 30 mph 1008 mb N @ 9 mph
Fourteen 10AM EST 9/9/03  13.4N  24.7W 35 mph 1007 mb NNW @ 10 mph
Fourteen 10AM EST 9/8/03  11.8N  22.1W 35 mph 1007 mb W @ 3 mph
Isabel [9/6/03--  ] 
  • Friday 9/19/03 11 am EDT -- 35 mph winds. Remnants of Isabel continue to weaken, but only after knocking out electrical power to 4.5 million, killing at least 15 people, and shutting down Washington DC for two days. Mid Friday, winds are 35 mph, and it should move into Canada from western New York state.
  • Wednesday 9/17/03 5 pm EDT -- 105 mph winds. Flooding is the greatest danger. Expect landfall early Thursday in eastern North Carolina (strength borderline between Category 2 and Category 3). Storm surge flooding of 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels is expected near and to the north of where the center crosses the coast. Rainfall amounts of 6 to 10 inches are likely along the path of the hurricane. 
  • Tuesday 9/16/03 11 pm EDT--Close to 100,000 people were evacuated from NC's Outer Banks. About 6,000 military personnel and their families on or near Langley Air Force Base in Hampton, Va., were ordered to leave. Navy ships from Norfolk, Va., and Earle, N.J. headed out to sea. Military aircraft were flown to airfields inland. Eastern Virginia colleges, including the College of William & Mary, will close Wednesday for the rest of the week.

Isabel News stories from a Carolina newspaper online

newsobserver.com - Coastal North Carolina Web cams

2008 Hurricane Season
June 1 thru Nov 30 is considered Hurricane Season
with peak activity August thru October
[here is our page for this season, with predictions and accumulated data as the season progresses]
[names for all regions]

 2008 Atlantic Names: Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gustav Hanna Ike Josephine Kyle Laura Marco Nana Omar Paloma Rene Sally Teddy Vicky Wilfred

2008 Eastern North Pacific Names: Alma Boris Cristina Douglas Elida Fausto Genevieve Hernan Iselle Julio Karina Lowell Marie Norbert Odile Polo Rachel Simon Trudy Vance Winnie Xavier Yolanda Zeke

 

 

 System   Time   Date   Lat   Long   Winds   Pressure   Dir/Speed 
 Isabel 11AM EDT 9/19/03  42.0N  80.7W 35 mph 997 mb N @ 30 mph
 Isabel 5PM EDT 9/17/03  31.1N  73.3W 105 mph 955 mb NNW @ 14 mph
 Isabel 11PM EDT 9/16/03  28.5N  71.7W 110 mph 957 mb NNW @ 8 mph
 Isabel 4AM EST 9/13/03  22.0N  60.4W 150 mph 935 mb W @ 9 mph
 Isabel 10PM EST 9/12/03  21.8N  59.5W 160 mph 923 mb W @ 9 mph
 Isabel 4AM EST 9/12/03  21.7N  57.0W 160 mph 921 mb W @ 9 mph
 Isabel 10PM EST 9/10/03  21.1N  52.8W 145 mph 935 mb W @ 10 mph
 Isabel 10AM EST 9/9/03  19.6N  46.9W 135 mph 948 mb WNW @ 14 mph
 Isabel 4PM EST 9/8/03  17.9N  43.7W 125 mph 952 mb WNW @ 14 mph
 Isabel 10AM EST  17.2N  42.6W 115 mph 962 mb WNW @ 14 mph
 Isabel 10AM EST 9/6/03  13.6N  34.5W 40 mph 1005 mb W @ 14 mph
  • Wednesday_9-17-03_5_pm_EDT 
      ...Large Hurricane Isabel closing in on the coast... A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Cape Fear North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia...including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds...and the Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within 24 hours.
      All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the Hurricane Warning area.
      A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect south of Cape Fear to South Santee River South Carolina...and north of Chincoteague to Sandy Hook New Jersey...including Delaware Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning also remains in effect for the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point northward...and for the tidal Potomac.
      At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Hurricane Isabel was located near latitude 31.1 north... longitude 73.3 west or about 315 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.
      Isabel is moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph. A turn to the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected prior to landfall. On the forecast track...the center of Isabel is expected to make landfall in eastern North Carolina during the day Thursday. However...the precise timing and location of landfall is uncertain...and conditions will deteriorate over a large area well before the center reaches the coast. Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coastline tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...with higher gusts. Isabel is a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. A slight increase in strength is possible prior to landfall. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 315 miles.
      The most recent minimum central pressure measured by an Air Force reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft was 955 mb...28.20 inches.
      Storm surge flooding of 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels... along with extremely large and dangerous battering waves...is expected near and to the north of where the center crosses the coast. Storm surge flooding of 4 to 8 ft above normal tide levels is expected in Chesapeake Bay and the tidal portions of adjacent rivers.
      Storm total rainfalls of 6 to 10 inches...with locally higher amounts...are likely in association with Isabel. There is the threat of isolated tornadoes over eastern North Carolina tonight and Thursday.
      Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...31.1 N... 73.3 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 955 mb.
      For storm-related information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office...and statements from local emergency management officials. An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 8 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 11 PM EDT.
  • Tuesday 9/16/03 11 pm EDT ...Isabel heading for the mid-Atlantic U.S. Coast... At 11 PM EDT...0300z...a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Cape Fear North Carolina northward to the North Carolina/Virginia state line including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds. A Hurricane Watch is in effect from the North Carolina/Virginia state line northward to Chincoteague Virginia including Chesapeake Bay and the tidal Potomac.
      A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Cape Fear southward to Little River Inlet South Carolina.
      A tropical storm watch is in effect from north of Chincoteague to Little Egg Inlet New Jersey including Delaware Bay...and from south of Little River Inlet to South Santee River South Carolina.
      A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are possible within the warning area...generally within 24 hours.
      At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Isabel was located near latitude 28.5 north...longitude 71.7 west or about 520 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.
      Isabel is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
      Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast prior to landfall.
      Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 145 miles from the center ...And tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 260 miles.
      The latest minimum central pressure reported by USAF reconnaissance aircraft is 957 mb...28.26 inches. Storm surge flooding of 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels is expected near and to the north of where the center crosses the coast. Rainfall amounts of 6 to 10 inches are likely along the path of the hurricane.
      Large ocean swells and dangerous surf conditions are being experienced along portions of the U.S. Eastern Seaboard. These conditions will also continue over portions of the Bahamas for the next few days.

 

 

 

Henri [9/5/03--   ] Brief status as a Tropical Storm in Gulf of Mexico, crossed Florida Friday 9/5/03, heading back east into Atlantic Saturday afternoon.

 

Grace [8/30/03--8/31/03] Brief status as a Tropical Storm in Gulf of Mexico, back down to Tropical Depression before landfall in mid Texas Gulf Coast about mid-day Sunday. Heavy rains (6-9 in.) in eastern Texas.
Fabian [ 8/28/03--  ]  
Saturday afternoon, 9/6/03 Winds 110 mph--swept across Bermuda with 120 mph winds, now heading NE into Atlantic, to gradually loose strength. Left 25,000 homes without power, drowned 4 people, damaged roofs, filled roads with debris. Strongest storm in Bermuda since Edna in 1953 (115 mph winds, about the same or a little less than Fabian).

2008 Hurricane Season
June 1 thru Nov 30 is considered Hurricane Season
with peak activity August thru October
[here is our page for this season, with predictions and accumulated data as the season progresses]
[names for all regions]

 2008 Atlantic Names: Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gustav Hanna Ike Josephine Kyle Laura Marco Nana Omar Paloma Rene Sally Teddy Vicky Wilfred

2008 Eastern North Pacific Names: Alma Boris Cristina Douglas Elida Fausto Genevieve Hernan Iselle Julio Karina Lowell Marie Norbert Odile Polo Rachel Simon Trudy Vance Winnie Xavier Yolanda Zeke

 
 System   Time   Date   Lat   Long   Winds   Pressure   Dir/Speed 
 Fabian 10AM EST 9/6/03  36.5N  61.5W 110 mph 965 mb NE @ 22 mph
 Fabian 1PM EST 9/5/03  31.9N  65.2W 120 mph 951 mb N @ 17 mph
 Fabian 10PM EST 9/1/03  19.4N  58.6W 145 mph 942 mb WNW @ 10 mph
 Fabian 5 PM AST 8/31/03     135 mph 952 mb  
 Fabian 4PM EST 8/30/03  17.4N  49.8W 115 mph 960 mb W @ 14 mph
 Fabian 4PM EST 8/28/03  15.2N  39.2W 45 mph 1004 mb W @ 22 mph

 

 

Erika [8/14/03--8/17/03] made landfall at Matamoros (30 mi S of Brownsville) at just under Hurricane strength, and dissipated in mountains of Mexico
  • Saturday 8/16/03
    • 4 pm: inland in Mexico, W of Matamoros: 35 mph, 1005 mb, moving WSW at 17 mph--expected to dissipate, possibly with rainfall in the mountains of Mexico
    • 7 am: 70 mph, 987 mb, moving W at 18 mph
      • made landfall by 6 am near Matamoros, MExico, 30 mi S of Brownsville--surprisingly little rain in Brownsville--
      • Queen Isabella Causeway closed--may open by mid-day Saturday
      • Under-developed, unpaved colonias, populated mostly by recent immigrants or migrants, were expected to turn quickly into quagmires, and people were streaming into 11 county-run shelters.  "The colonias will flood with a lot less rain than this," Hinojosa said.  As of 5 a.m. CDT, more than 1,200 people had sought shelter.
  • Friday 8/15/03
    • 4 pm: 60 mph, 1000 mb, moving W at 22 mph
      • Erika is forecast to make landfall as a 65-knot hurricane...intensity forecasts are uncertain. The formation of an inner core...which is not out of the question but basically impossible to forecast...could result in stronger winds at landfall.
    • 10 am: 50 mph, 1008 mb, moving W at 23 mph
      • "Storm surge flooding is expected to be 3 to 6 feet above normal tide levels...along with large battering waves...near and to the north of where the center crosses the coast. Rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected near the path of Erika. There is a possibility of isolated tornadoes along the middle Texas coast beginning tonight."

 
System   Time   Date   Lat   Long   Winds   Pressure   Dir/Speed 
 Erika 11 PM 8/17/03     30 mph dissipating in mountains of Mexico--rain could cause mudslides
 Erika 11PM EDT 8/16/03  24.8N  100.8W 30 mph 1008 mb W @ 14 mph
 Erika 5PM EDT  24.6N  99.8W 35 mph 1005 mb WSW @ 17 mph
 Erika 7AM EDT  25.4N  97.4W 70 mph 987 mb W @ 18 mph
 Erika 8PM EDT 8/15/03  26.0N  94.5W 60 mph   998 mb W @ 20 mph
 Erika 5PM EDT  26.0N  93.5W 60 mph 1000 mb W @ 22 mph
 Erika 2PM EDT  26.0N  92.5W 50 mph 1001 mb W @ 23 mph
 Erika 11AM EDT  26.1N  91.4W 50 mph 1008 mb W @ 23 mph

 

 

Danny [7/16/03--7-20-03]
  • 7/20/03 5 pm AST--35 mph, 1010 mb "last advisory". Faded to remnant low. Its path for the next 5 days should make a huge clockwise loop, but it probably will not survive long enough to get back over warm water and recover strength.
  • 7/18/03 Became Hurricane Danny 5 pm AST--cooler water soon: lose some strength.
    Track: over the next week, expect a huge clockwise loop to head it back West, except over cool water it may not survive the loop.
  • 7/17/03 Tropical Storm status, became "Danny"-- (note AST Atlantic Standard Time)
    • 11 am AST: 65 mph, 1010 mb
    • 5 am AST: 50 mph, 1010 mb. Threat only to shipping lanes.
  • 7/16/03 Became Tropical Depression 5 East of Bermuda--expected to go North, then East, staying well away from any land. Could become named storm Thursday, but should not reach hurricane strength, because of heading for cooler water.

 

 
Claudette [7/8/03--7/16/03] Current Visible Satellite Loop  | Current Radar Loop
  • captured satellite images: just before landfall  soon after landfall  220pm  420pm
  • captured radar loops: just before landfall  just after landfall  soon after  several hours later  over mexico east of big bend  heading into big bend  over big bend  fizzled out past big bend
  • other captured images: ??? ??? ??? ??? ???
  • from weatherunderground:
  • from palmbeachpost:
  • Wed 7/16/03
    • 30,000 customers without power--"a few thousand" may remain without power for several days. Two fatalities (falling trees or limbs). Red Cross has hundreds of workers in South Texas, will become thousands.
  • Tue 7/15/03 HURRICANE Claudette
    • Final Advisory: 10 pm CDT:
      ...Claudette weakening as it moves inland...coastal warnings discontinued... At 10 PM CDT...0300 UTC...all coastal warnings are discontinued. However...a few wind gusts in excess of tropical storm force are still possible in rainbands over the Gulf of Mexico.
        At 10 PM CDT...0300z...the center of Tropical Storm Claudette was located near latitude 28.5 north... longitude 98.9 west or about 70 miles south-southwest of San Antonio Texas.
        Claudette is moving toward the west near 14 mph. A west or west-northwest motion is expected over the next 24 hours.
        Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph...with higher gusts. Claudette is expected to weaken to a tropical depression Wednesday morning.
        Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles ... 95 km from the center.
        Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb...29.41 inches.
        Storm surge flooding...swells...and battering waves along the Texas coast are subsiding.
        Storm total rainfall of 5 to 8 inches is possible in association with Claudette.
        Isolated tornadoes are possible in portions of south-central Texas tonight. One fatality has been reported in association with Claudette...a thirteen-year-old was killed by a falling tree in Jourdanton Texas in Atascosa County. Repeating the 10 PM CDT position...28.5 N... 98.9 W. Movement toward...west near 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 50 mph. Minimum central pressure... 996 mb.
        For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
        This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Future information on Claudette can be found in public advisories issued by the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center...under AWIPS header tcpat4 and wmo header wtnt34 kwnh...beginning at 4 am CDT.
        Forecaster Franklin
    • 4 pm CDT 70 mph winds, 989 mb = Back to Tropical Storm status. Rain bands about to move into the Hill Country.
    • 2 pm CDT 75 mph winds, 985 mb--over land (Matagordo Bay) since about noon, loosing strength, but slowly. Moving into South Central Texas. Track as expected: rain bands approaching San Antonio and Austin around 3 pm.
    • 10 am CDT Tues 7/15/03 (80 mph winds, 981 mb) landfall imminent, half way between Corpus Christi and Galveston.
      [captured satellite image just before landfall]
      [captured radar loop just before landfall]
      The path brings Claudette just south of our area, loosing strength & dumping lots of rain, which will put us in the heaviest quadrant of rains.
      [Current Radar Loop]
      Wind Advisory 10:50 am CDT, includes: "Northeast and North winds of 20 to 35 mph will reach as far inland as the Austin and San Antonio metropolitan areas." (We are barely beyond the Western fringe of the warned area.)
      Rain bands should reach Kerr area Tues afternoon, with rains becoming heavier and more frequent into Tues evening, overnight, and most of Wednesday. Flood watches and/or warnings in the Kerr area will be likely beginning later Tuesday.
  • Mon 7/14/03
    • 10 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2003 ...CLAUDETTE TURNS WEST...NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH...BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...SHOULD STRENGTHEN SOME BEFORE LANDFALL TUESDAY EVENING
       
      A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE TEXAS COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO HIGH ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA.
        A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
        AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 94.0 WEST OR ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.
        CLAUDETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK... CLAUDETTE WILL BE NEAR THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST BY TOMORROW EVENING.
        MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CLAUDETTE IS VERY CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT.
        TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
        THE LATEST PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.
        STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST. LARGE SWELLS HAVE BEEN IMPACTING THE SHORELINES ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND ARE CREATING ABOVE NORMAL TIDES AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS.
        STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH CLAUDETTE.
    • SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 345 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2003
      ...TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CLAUDETTE TO IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE HILL COUNTRY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
        Tropical storm claudette continues to get better organized in the Northwestern gulf of mexico this afternoon. Current national Weather service tropical predication center forecasts indicate it Will turn to the west-northwest tonight and make landfall along the Texas coastal bend tuesday evening. It is then expected to move Into and across south central texas wednesday and wednesday night. Thus...much of south central texas and entire hill country on the favorable right side of the system for greatest impact.
        The outer bands of claudette will begin to impact the areas of south Central texas nearest the coastal plains tonight. Then the bands Will slowly rotate to the west tuesday.
        As claudette moves across tuesday night through early thursday...the Threat for heavy rains will increase. Flash flood watches will Likely have to be issued for at least parts of south central texas And the hill country beginning tuesday afternoon or evening. Preliminary forecasts indicate rainfall amounts will average between 2 to 4 inches with isolated totals of 6 to 8 inches possible through Thursday. These could change based on the speed of the system.
        Campers...hikers...and those with interests along rivers and Streams...as well as those in low lying areas should begin to prepare For a potential heavy rain event. Some soils remain moist from Rains of the past couple of weeks...and runoff could become rapid.
        In addition...tropical storm force winds are possible along the areas Of south central texas nearest the coastal plains. A high wind watch For tropical storm force winds may have to be issued for those areas.
        Persons in south central texas and the hill country are advised to Monitor this evolving weather situation.

    • 8 am CDT: 68 mph winds, 991 mb, becoming better organized. Behaviour still erratic and non-typical. Motion toward Gulf Coast has begun. Hurricane Hunter found the beginning of an open eyewall. In another 6 hours we should know a lot more.
  • Sun 7/13/03
    • Motion nearly stalled, very slight strengthening, expected to begin moving toward lower Texas Gulf Coast
  • Sat 7/12/30
    • Spent the day managing to maintain winds in spite of upper shear, and still tracking for about Brownsville. If it holds till Monday, it could barely build to hurricane strength by landfall Tuesday morning. Rains from Claudette could affect the Hill Country by mid-week, unless it goes more westward than predicted.
  • Fri 7/11/03
    • 8 am CDT: 55 mph winds, 1008 mb--skimmed the tip of Yucatan, heading into the Gulf. Should hold for a while, then strengthen some...possibly a hurricane by Sunday. Landfall maybe Tuesday, anywhere from Mexico to Houston, centered on Brownsville--very iffy with this storm's history...
  • Thur 7/10/03--full of surprises
    • 10 pm CDT: 50 mph winds, 1008 mb--should reach Yucatan well before dawn Friday
    • 4 pm CDT: 70 mph winds, 993 mb
    • 7 am CDT: 60 mph winds, 996 mb, WNW at 17 mph, upper shear interfering with development. Expect weakening over Yucatan, then maybe strengthening in the Gulf. Models disagree after that: not much change, to quick strengthening. Also paths: into Mexican coast, or Texas Gulf coast, or Louisiana. We could get it right up the Rio Grande valley next week, with heavy rains into the hill country--stay tuned.
  • Tue 7/8/03 4 pm CDT 50 mph winds, 1006 mb, moving westward 29 mph--
  • System   Time   Date   Lat   Long   Winds   Pressure   Dir/Speed 
                   
    Claudette 11PM EDT 7/15/03  28.5N  98.9W 50 mph 996 mb W @ 14 mph
    Claudette 5PM EDT  28.6N  97.5W 70 mph
    TropSt'm
    989 mb W @ 14 mph
    Claudette 3PM EDT  28.6N  97.1W 75 mph 985 mb WNW @ 14 mph
        Landfall about noon at Matagordo Bay
    Claudette 11AM EDT  28.5N  96.1W 80 mph
    Hurricane
    981 mb WNW @ 10 mph
    Claudette 11PM EDT 7/14/03  27.8N  94.0W 70 mph 988 mb W @ 8 mph
    Claudette 5PM EDT  27.5N  93.1W 65 mph 989 mb NNW @ 7 mph
    Claudette 8AM EDT  26.7N  92.6W 65 mph 991 mb NW @ 6 mph
    Claudette 10PM EDT 7/13/03  25.7N  92.3W 65 mph 992mb ~stationary
    Claudette 4PM EDT  25.3N  92.4W 60 mph 997mb ~stationary
    Claudette 11PM EDT 7/12/03   25.1N  91.9W 50 mph 1005 mb W @ 8 mph
    Claudette 10AM EDT  24.1N  91.2W 50 mph 1006 mb NW @ 12 mph
    Claudette 10PM EDT 7/11/03  22.9N  89.6W 50 mph 1008 mb NW @ 13 mph
    Claudette 8AM EDT  21.6N  87.0W 55 mph 1008 mb NNW @ 12 mph
    Claudette 11PM EDT 7/10/03  20.0N  85.8W 50 mph 1008 mb NW @ 16 mph
    Claudette 5PM EDT  18.6N  84.2W 70 mph 993 mb NW @ 14 mph
    Claudette 8AM EDT  17.0N  83.1W 60 mph 996 mb WNW @ 17 mph

     

     


Saffir-
Simpson
Scale

Depression
<35 mph
<30kt

Tropical Storm
(earns a name from the list)
39-73 mph
34-64 kt

Category 1:
74-95 mph
65-82 knots
4-5 ft surge
minimal damage

Category 2:
96-110 mph
83-96 knots
6-8 ft surge
moderate damage

Category 3:
111-130 mph
97-113 knots
9-12 ft surge
extensive damage

Category 4:
131-155 mph
114-135 knots
13-18 ft surge
extreme damage

Category 5:
over 155 mph
over 135 knots
>18 ft surge
catastrophic damage

Here is NOAA's page.

Wind Scales describes the Beaufort Scale and also the Saffir-Simpson Scale.
plus:
Small Craft Warning
21-38 mph
18-33 kt
Gale Warning
39-54 mph
34-47 kt
Storm Warning
55-73 mph
48-63 kt

 

Bill [6/29/03-7/01/03]--(Tropical Storm) Summary: Maximum sustained winds, 60 mph. Minimum central pressure, 100 mb.
Tuesday 7/1/03 -- 11:30 a.m.: About 100,000 were without electricity, some likely to be without power until Wednesday. Landfall Monday afternoon had 60 mph winds. By 11 a.m. Tuesday, winds were down to 30 mph. Rainfall: 5.72 inches by late Monday at Mobile, Ala., 8 inches in Pascagoula by noon Monday,  12.8 inches (radar estimate) in the Van Cleave area, 4 to 6 inches in New Orleans.
Monday 6/30/03 -- 4 PM CDT: 60 mph winds, over land, will weaken.
  "Storm surge coastal flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels near and to the east of the center is expected to gradually subside later tonight.
  Additional rainfall amounts of 4 to 7 inches are expected over portions of Louisiana...Mississippi...Alabama...and the western Florida Panhandle.
  A few tornadoes are possible over portions of southeastern Louisiana...southern Mississippi..southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle."

Ana [] -- no data at this time