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2004 Hurricane Season
 Click here for the archive of the 2003 Season

Always current: Tropical Weather & Storm 2004 & CNN's Hurricane page

 


2004 Hurricane Season-Atlantic Basin
 June 1 thru Nov 30 (peak is Aug thru Oct)

Alex Bonnie Charley Danielle Earl Frances Gaston Hermine Ivan Jeanne Karl Lisa Matthew Nicole Otto Paula Richard Shary Tomas Virginie Walter
(click any "link" storm to jump to more details)

 

  • Consensus Government Forecasts (NOAA, Natl Hurricane Center, and others):

    NOAA’s 2004 Atlantic hurricane season outlook indicates a 50% probability of an above-normal hurricane season, a 40% probability of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season, according to a consensus of scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC), the Hurricane Research Division (HRD), and the National Hurricane Center (NHC). See NOAA’s definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons.

    The outlook calls for 12-15 tropical storms, with 6-8 becoming hurricanes, and 2-4 of these becoming major hurricanes. These numbers reflect a predicted ACE index in the range of 100%-160% of the median, and indicate a likely continuation of above-normal activity that began in 1995.

    The predicted 2004 activity is based primarily on the ongoing active phase of the Atlantic multi-decadal signal, but also reflects expected warmer sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea than can be accounted for by the multi-decadal signal alone. The outlook also reflects the likelihood that ENSO-neutral conditions (no El Niño or La Niña) will continue through August-October, the peak months of the hurricane season. An updated hurricane outlook will be issued in early August.

  • William Gray et al forecasts (You may have to set your browser to ignore the web's font settings...)
    Forecast Parameter
    and Climatology from 1950-2000
    (in parentheses)    		 5
    Dec
    2003    		 2 April
    2004    		 28 May
    2004    		 6 Aug
    2004    		 3 Sept
    2004    		 1 Oct
    2004
    Named Storms (9.6) 13 14 14      
    Named Storm Days (49.1) 55 60 60      
    Hurricanes (5.9) 7 8 8      
    Hurricane Days (24.5) 30 35 35      
    Intense Hurricanes (2.3)
    (3-5 on Saffir-Simpson scale)    		 3 3 3      
    Intense Hurricane Days (5.0) 6 8 8      
    Hurricane Destruction Potential (72.7) 85 100 100      
     

    PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL IN EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:
     

    1) Entire U.S. coastline - 71% (average for last century is 52%)
    2) U.S. East Coast Including the Florida Peninsula - 52% (average for last century is 31%)
    3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 40% (average for last century is 30%)
    4) Expected above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean

 

 ...


Saffir-
Simpson
Scale

Depression
<35 mph
<30kt

Tropical Storm
(earns a name from the list)
39-73 mph
34-64 kt

Category 1:
74-95 mph
65-82 knots
4-5 ft surge
minimal damage

Category 2:
96-110 mph
83-96 knots
6-8 ft surge
moderate damage

Category 3:
111-130 mph
97-113 knots
9-12 ft surge
extensive damage

Category 4:
131-155 mph
114-135 knots
13-18 ft surge
extreme damage

Category 5:
over 155 mph
over 135 knots
>18 ft surge
catastrophic damage

Here is NOAA's page.

Wind Scales describes the Beaufort Scale and also the Saffir-Simpson Scale.
plus:
Small Craft Warning
21-38 mph
18-33 kt
Gale Warning
39-54 mph
34-47 kt
Storm Warning
55-73 mph
48-63 kt

   

Tropical Depression 14 --
 
System   Time   Date   Lat   Long   Winds   Pressure   Dir/Speed 
               

 

Tropical Depression 13 --
 
System   Time   Date   Lat   Long   Winds   Pressure   Dir/Speed 
               

 

Tropical Depression 12 --
 
System   Time   Date   Lat   Long   Winds   Pressure   Dir/Speed 
               

 

Tropical Depression 11 -- Jeanne

Expect Landfall late Saturday night 9-25-04 or early Sunday morning 9-26-04 on Florida's east coast.

Target Range: West Palm Beach to Daytona Beach

Likely Track: right up the middle of Florida, through east Georgia and South Carolina, edging back into the Atlantic off North Carolina, and skimming the rest of the U. S. East Coast.

Mid-day Saturday 9-25-04: lashing the Bahamas with 115 mph winds, heading for Florida landfall, where 3 million people have been told to evacuate.

  • Earlier: Disaster in Haiti: After Jeanne became a Hurricane 9/16/04 in the Dominical Republic, it went on to kill around 2000 in Haiti. Survivors are so desperate that disaster relief deliveries are plagued by violent riots. Expect widespread disease from contaminated water, lack of medicine and meals. [report] [search the news for this topic] [Haiti's Tragic Hurricane history--list of tragedies and discussion of cause factors.]
  • Archive of Jeanne -- track, max winds, list of positions and windspeed.
    		•

    Tropical Depression 10 --
     
    System   Time   Date   Lat   Long   Winds   Pressure   Dir/Speed 
                   

     

    Tropical Depression 9 -- Hurricane Ivan was Terrible, and the remnants looped back into the Gulf, strengthened back to about 60 mph, and came inland near the Texas-Louisiana border.
    Archive of Ivan tracking, etc.

    Tropical Depression 8 --
     

     

    Tropical Depression 7 --
     

     

    Tropical Depression Six -- Hurricane Frances battered the Bahamas and Florida, crossed Gulf waters, reentered the Florida panhandle and swept through the US. Its very large size and slow motion made this a very damaging storm even though the intensity had weakened by landfall in Florida. Flooding, power outages, structural damage, loss of Tourism--largest evacuation in Florida history.
     Archived Tracking etc for Francis

    Tropical Depression Five -- Formed Fri 8/13/04 in mid-Atlantic, headed for the Antilles...
     

    System   Time   Date   Lat   Long   Winds   Pressure   Dir/Speed 
     Five 10AM EST 8/14/04  10.4N  52.2W 35 mph 1009 mb WNW @ 23 mph
     Five 10PM EST 8/13/04  9.4N  48.3W 30 mph 1009 mb W @ 21 mph
     Five 4PM EST 8/13/04  8.9N  46.2W 35 mph 1009 mb W @ 20 mph
     Five 4PM EST 8/13/04  8.9N  46.2W 35 mph 1009 mb W @ 20 mph

     

    Danielle -- Formed Fri 8/13/04 off west coast of Africa.
     

    System   Time   Date   Lat   Long   Winds   Pressure   Dir/Speed 
     Danielle 10AM EST 8/14/04  13.3N  27.3W 50 mph 1000 mb W @ 14 mph
     Danielle 10PM EST 8/13/04  12.7N  24.8W 40 mph 1009 mb W @ 14 mph
     Four 4PM EST 8/13/04  12.5N  24.0W 35 mph 1009 mb W @ 15 mph
     Four 4PM EST 8/13/04  12.5N  24.0W 35 mph 1009 mb W @ 15 mph
     Four 10AM EST 8/13/04  12.2N  22.7W 35 mph 1009 mb W @ 14 mph

     
    Charley -- Major problems in Florida Friday 8/13/04: Storm surg, flooding, wind damage, power outage--Over 2 million people evacuated. Tracking Map | 5 Day Forecast Map | Historical Map | Public Advisory | Marine Advisory | Discussion | Satellite Map | Strike Probability | Strike Probability Map | Wind Map | Coordinates | Computer Models
     

    System   Time   Date   Lat   Long   Winds   Pressure   Dir/Speed 
     Charley 11AM EDT 8/14/04  33.2N  79.0W 75 mph 990 mb NNE @ 28 mph
    Charley 9PM EDT 8/13/04  28.4N  81.4W 90 mph 965 mb NNE @ 25 mph
     Charley 5PM EDT 8/13/04  26.9N  82.2W 140 mph 941 mb NNE @ 22 mph
    Charley 1PM EDT 8/13/04  25.7N  82.5W 125 mph 964 mb NNE @ 20 mph
     Charley 11PM EDT 8/12/04  22.2N  82.4W 105 mph 975 mb NNW @ 14 mph
    Charley 2PM EDT 8/11/04  16.6N  76.8W 75 mph 993 mb WNW @ 18 mph
     Charley 11AM EDT 8/11/04  16.5N  76.1W 70 mph 996 mb WNW @ 18 mph
    Charley 10PM EST 8/10/04  16.0N  72.8W 65 mph 999 mb WNW @ 25 mph

     
    Bonnie -- inland US East Coast, lots of rain and storm activity-- Tracking Map | Historical Map | Public Advisory | Marine Advisory | Discussion | Satellite Map | Strike Probability | Strike Probability Map | Wind Map | Coordinates | Computer Models
     

    System   Time   Date   Lat   Long   Winds   Pressure   Dir/Speed 
     Bonnie 5PM EDT 8/12/04  31.1N  83.0W 35 mph 1006 mb NE @ 26 mph
     Bonnie 2PM EDT 8/11/04  26.2N  89.5W 65 mph 1000 mb NE @ 12 mph
     Bonnie 11AM EDT 8/11/04  25.9N  90.3W 50 mph 1000 mb NNE @ 6 mph
     Bonnie 11PM EDT 8/10/04  25.0N  90.4W 45 mph 1004 mb N @ 5 mph
        gap          
    Two 4PM EST 8/4/04  13.5N  63.5W 35 mph 1011 mb W @ 23 mph
     Two 4PM EST 8/3/04  13.6N  56.6W 30 mph 1009 mb W @ 23 mph
     Two 11AM EDT 8/3/04  13.2N  54.2W 30 mph 1009 mb W @ 21 mph

     
     

    Alex -- became TD1 7/31/04, became tropical storm 2 pm EDT 8/1/04
    became Hurricane 3 am Tues. Grazed NC outer banks Tues afternoon and headed NE over the Atlantic, expected to gradually weaken.

    Tracking Map | 5 Day Forecast Map | Historical Map | Public Advisory | Marine Advisory | Discussion | Satellite Map | Strike Probability | Strike Probability Map | Wind Map | Coordinates | Computer Models
    • Wow! Thursday am, Category 3 with 120 mph winds (way out over the Atlantic). Still expected to weaken...
    • After the grazing contact with NC's outer banks: as of afternoon, Wed 8/4/04, 105 mph winds, expected to weaken over the Atlantic.
    • ByTuesday evening, Alex was moving back out into the Atlantic. As of 5 p.m. Wednesday, the storm had regained wind speed of 105 mph, moving at 18 mph to the east-northeast. The storm's expected to gradually weaken in the coming days.
    • A stronger-than-expected Hurricane Alex brushed North Carolina's coast Tuesday, cutting power to thousands and flooding Hatteras Island's only link to the mainland but sparing the area a direct hit.
    • At the peak of power outages on Tuesday, a total of 10,000 customers were without electricity, including 6,800 customers on Hatteras Island from Rodanthe to Hatteras Village and all 2,100 customers on Ocracoke Island.
       

    System   Time   Date   Lat   Long   Winds   Pressure   Dir/Speed 
     Alex 5AM EDT 8/5/04  40.0N  61.5W 120 mph 957 mb ENE @ 29 mph
     Alex 5PM EDT 8/4/04  37.9N  67.5W 105 mph 970 mb ENE @ 18 mph
     Alex 5PM EDT 8/3/04  35.8N  74.6W 100 mph 972 mb NE @ 17 mph
     Alex 1PM EDT 8/3/04  35.1N  75.4W 100 mph 970 mb NE @ 17 mph
     Alex 11AM EDT 8/3/04  34.7N  75.8W 100 mph 972 mb NE @ 15 mph
     Alex 8AM EDT 8/3/04  34.1N  76.5W 90 mph 974 mb NNE @ 14 mph
     Alex 5PM EDT 8/2/04  32.1N  78.5W 60 mph 993 mb NNE @ 6 mph
     Alex 11AM EDT 8/2/04  31.5N  78.7W 60 mph 993 mb ENE @ 5 mph